College Football Playoff Picture – Nov. 15, 2015

So numbers 6-10 had a rough week this week.  Many of them losing, and possibly killing their chances at a College Football Playoff spot.  There will be some interesting questions answered in Tuesday’s new rankings.

Where does Baylor sit now?  How much confidence does the committee have in Baylor after they lose to Oklahoma, the only team with a winning record they have faced all season?  I think we should watch where they end up in relation to Michigan, the highest ranked 2 loss team.

How far up does Oklahoma move up?  I don’t see them taking over the 4th slot, but could they be the new #5 team, supplanting Iowa?

And who will be the highest ranked Pac-12 team, and where will they end up?

So many questions for the committee to answer for a top 25.  Luckily, I only do a top 10.  Here they are.

  1. Clemson
  2. Ohio State
  3. Oklahoma State
  4. Iowa
  5. Alabama
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Oklahoma
  8. Florida
  9. Michigan State
  10. Michigan

Look who moved into the top 10?  Michigan is slowly working their way back into this national title picture.  They are reminiscent of the 2007 LSU team who had 2 losses and worked their way back into contention.  However, some of these 1 loss teams look really good right now (Alabama, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma) and that will make it hard to Michigan to crack top 10.  Ultimately, Notre Dame will throw a wrench into all of this.  Right now the Pac-12 seems to have lost a chance to be in the top 4.  That would leave the other 4 main conferences to offer their champion to play in the playoff, right?  Notre Dame is causing that idea to go away.  And I don’t see Notre Dame going away.   So which conference gets knocked out?

My Projected Playoff Contenders

  1. Clemson
  2. Ohio State
  3. Alabama
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. Michigan State

I could see Michigan State slipping up to beat Ohio State, but then Ohio State goes off and wins rest of games to get back into playoff.  Right now, I think the SEC Champion has a clear path to the championship.  And the ACC is hinging it hopes to Clemson.  So which teams could play spoiler to this whole plan?

Notre Dame will play its brand of spoiler as the one independent team here.  I could see North Carolina being a tough test for Clemson.  Auburn will play Alabama tough, and hope to ruin their chances.  Michigan seems like the biggest threat to beat Ohio State, but Michigan State has felt like a team of destiny this year.  And Stanford could still beat Notre Dame.  All the top 10 teams still have rough challenges ahead, so it is not over.  This could be a year where maybe a couple of 2 loss teams crack the top 4.  With each week, the College Football Playoff Picture becomes clearer.


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